Breeders' Cup Classic 2017 Preview & Prediction

This year's edition of the Breeders’ Cup two-day and 13-race event shall be held this Friday-Saturday for the first time in its 33-years at Southern California's famed Del Mar Racetrack. The locale marks the 11th time that the area will play host to these festivities. Santa Anita done-so eight-times and thrice did the now-gone Hollywood Park. May its memory be for a blessing. The jewel in this horsey-crown, as well as the focus of this column lest you already forgot its title, is the $6M Classic.

Trainer Bob Baffert, he of the flowy-silvery mane, is a part of any equestrian equation, and this instance is none-different. He hath won the last three Breeders’ Cup Classics via Bayern, American Pharoah, and Arrogate -- whom won last year's installment. He brings not just his defending champion, but four-other horses to this affair, in hopes of making it four-in-a-row. Which is great fun for all because then you open the trap-door and all the checker-pieces loudly tumble to the table, oh boy!

Speaking directly to the current weak crop of three-year-olds, none of this year's Triple Crown winners are in the running here. Not the Derby's Always Dreaming, nor the Preakness's Cloud Computing, nor Belmont's Tapwrit. The cream of the crop is aboard, humsoever, in West Coast. Who interestingly is a youngish three, according to his late foal date.

Vastly still, this absence leaves the spotlight shone on the more mature favorites of the four-year-old colt Gun Runner, and yes, the same vintage'd Juddmonte Farms owned Arrogate. The unequivocal top-two choices. Each horse mentioned up-to-now (Arrogate, Gun Runner, (lesser)West Coast) can use a victory here to easily lay rightful claim to Horse of the Year honorifics with a lucky and good Saturday. A closer look unto and into the Arrogate versus Gun Runner scenario perchance tells the old yarn of two careers upon divergent paths. 

Arrogate, whilst currently the Longines World's Best Racehorse in the wake and on the strength of his seven-race winning streak; consisting of four-consecutive Grade-one triumphancies including The Travers, the $12M Pegasus, and the $10M Dubai World Cup -- has since lost his last two-races. It is absolutely woeful that I could not construct that sentence any better. Another bit not in his favor, is that only one-other horse, Tiznow, has managed to win the Classic back-to-back. That being in 2000 & 2001. Oh, did I mention that those two-losses which he's currently on the heels of came at Del Mar? They so did, gentlepersons; at the San Diego Handicap and then Pacific Classic -- where he was beaten by Collected. In the San Diego Hcp., he finished fourth.

Gun Runner, on the other hoof (I slay me), is fresh-off three-in-a-row Grade-one wins: The Woodward, Whitney, and Stephen Foster, writ from most recent on-ward. Mayhaps too, he has some tick of unfinished business with Arrogate, as he was second to him in March's Dubai. If a hourse doth care, of corse. Plus, he won't be breaking out of the one-slot, a thing his mentioned foe is saddled-with. Twixt the two beasts, it just seems all flowing to the direction of Winchell Thoroughbreds owned Gun Runner. Although considering this a match-race may be a dangerous over-simplification.

Collected, the horse already mentioned as a vanquisher of Arrogate, should surely be considered herein having an excellent shot. A very good shot. A fair shot. Would ya believe a fair shot? The four-year-old out of Speedway Stable -- and how excellent a racing name is that? -- is eight-for-eleven in his career. Although his win over an Arrogate on a schneid came in a substantial step-up in opposition. Something he'd have to do once again Saturday. The other two-thirds of his latest three outings were wins but in grade-two and three fields.  

Gentlepersons, farbeit for me to outta hand dismiss a horse with growing buzz, but I will anyways. Churchill, an Irish horse trained by the renown Aidan O'Brien, is a horse that has done the majority of his racing on grass. The Classic is run on my television. Also, dirt. 

Then there is my personal pick, and before I name him again I will again remind you to never bet the dough dough. Least not on my rudimentary observations. Allow me to quote me, then end with a link which will pull-up another article of mine in keeping with this one. The hubris! I shall pretend to be sorry then humble... "'Tis still too far off from the $6M race spectacular to take a coherent stab at whom's streak will either break or continue -- but I will say you should bet the farm on the three-year-old colt with A.P. Indy blood in his veins, West Coast. Kidding. Not yet. But ya know. He's coming off three first-place finishes in three graded stakes: the Pennsylvania and Travers Stakes, and Los Alamitos Derby. Better price. But ya know. HashtagTooSoon and for entertainment purposes only." Arrogate, Gun Runner: Work Toward Breeders' Cup Classic Showdown

Now to not leave anyone else-out in these, our cautious doling-out of participation trophy times -- lettuce address, in its entirety, the field: "Hell-ooo, field!" included be-low are the starting posts, pony, jockey/trainer, and line as it stands as I type this upon my new Chromebook on this chilly first day of November. Fear not, for I hath-on new tube-socks. Stayed warm the whole-time. Two packs of six for ten bucks at my neighborhood box-store. Such a deal!

1. Arrogate M.Smith/B.Baffert (9-4)
2. War Decree S.Heffernan/A.O'Brien (33-1)
3. Win The Space J.Talamo/G.Papaprodomou (50-1)
4. War Story J.Ortiz/G.Navarro (50-1)
5. Gun Runner F.Geroux/S.Asmussen (8-5)
6. Mubtaahij D.Van Dyke/B.Baffert (20-1)
7. Churchill R.Moore/A.O'Brien (16-1)
8. West Coast J.Castellano/B.Baffert (5-1)
9. Gunnevera E.Zayas/A.Sano (40-1)
10. Pavel M.Gutierrez/D.O'Neill (33-1)
11. Collected M.Garcia/B.Baffert (11-2)

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"THE MONK REPLIED"