Thursday, May 4, 2017

Canelo vs Chavez, Jr. Cinco de Mayo Boxing Prediction


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Cinco de Mayo comes uno dias late this Saturday, whenst two of the biggest names in the world of Mexican boxing… one of which is mayhaps the preeminent name in all boxing, at least prior to Anthony Joshua handling Klitschko, show up to their showdown. But which fighter carrying a surname of worldly repute is earned only on the lack of back of the Jr. suffix? Gentlepersons, lettuce look ahead to the Lost Wages T-Mobile Arena hosted Super Middleweight 'Fight for Mexico' 164.5lb catchweight contest twixt Misters Saul "Canelo" Alvarez and Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. with a keen eye gazing, natch, un/into mine olde crystal ball.

Since losing the first fight of his career to then-champ Sergio Martinez, Mr. Chavez only got worserer it sadly seems. His technique suffered and even more-so his motivation doth did plummet. Weight issues against Brian Vera left him quite fortunate indeed to get the decision in their first fight. He looked positively negatively terrible against Mr. Fonfara, quitting on his stool after nine rounds. There just haven't been many recent or perchance ever, demonstrations of abundant talent in motion from Chavez, Jr. in recent outings. He has been squared-up, easy to hit, and prior to the bell, lethargic in his camps.

Whom can remove the the scene from their heads, HBO’s “24/7” prior to Chavez’s 2012 title fight with Sergio Martinez, Poor Freddie Roach standing alone in the gym, waiting for his wayward ward to arrive? Ah, but now replace Mr. Roach with none other than one Mr. Nacho Beristain. On the other side of Trump's dreamt wall, Beristain is to training as Julio Sr. is to fighting. El Gran Entrenador. A no-nonsense disciplinarian. Surely so he can if all else surly so bring around Chavez's work ethic.

As of late, after a win over Reyes, Chavez returned 18 months later in for a ten-round win over Dominik Britsch. Most importantly, he weighed in comfortably below the 168-pound limit. Perchance Chavez, Jr. is prepared to get serious for one last run at glory. FOR DUTY AND HUMANITY as three stooges fans giggle knowingly. If so, what then? Still, the catch-weight for this fight seems to strip Chavez of his seemingly lone advantage, namely size. More predatory weight finaglings in Canelo’s matchmaking -- who’da thunk it? To be clear, I do not hold this practice against Mr. Alvarez. With rank comes privilege, and earned rank is grand. After all, matchmaking is as much boxing as what happens in the proverbial squared circle.

Canelo hath been at a high level for a long time. A true sweet science practitioner. A pugilist by trade. He never puts forth a bad fight and remains supremely conditioned and never is his own worst enemy -- this opposite a’ the essential MO of Chavez. After losing to Mayweather in his only loss, El Gingero upped his efforts and improved his art, whilst taking on tough opponents in Erislandy Lara, Amir Khan, and Miguel Cotto. All done-so in a basic if not simplistic manner of solid fisticuffs engaged in upon slow flat feet.

Chavez, Jr. is no small fella He's probably best-suited for the light heavyweight division. He has height and reach advantages over Canelo and is just the bigger man. The problem is again the contracted weight, he is simply and obviously too big of a human to be under 165 pounds. Team Chavez, Jr. was in no position to make demands and the weight was definitely a major concession. Chances are he will be a gaunt and easy to track then hit adversary.
Canelo might even be the harder puncher and at this weight -- he's not depleted, in fact he will be quite 'pleted.' Also, he generally and genuinely hath one punch knock-out power. Just ask the much smaller Mr. Amir Khan. He can hurt good opponents with both hands and will work the said probable gaunt Chavez body hard.

Maybe Chavez, Jr. enters this fight with more fire in his belly than some suspect. I suspect that to be the case, as I'm never categorically speaking "some." It's just that Chavez, Jr. simply might not have it in him. He's been in big fights before and wasn't able to prepare in even a nigh meaningful fashion. Why would he now? For Mexico, per chance? For Nacho? Mayhaps he’ll make his best showing -- but Canelo would, in turn, have to make with his worst to complete that swing in Jr’s favor.

Canelo is simply too verily better in every pug department. The only advantage Chavez brings is size, size, and I'll say it again: size. That should help make it uncompetitively competitive. I foretell a negation of such via 99.9% in-fighting come Cinco de Seis. Chavez is though as said the bigger fella so I’m fairly sure that Canelo won't stop him. I do see a wide unanimous decision for Alvarez -- although scored closer than maybe it should be. Unanimous nonetheless. Chavez has a granite chin and Mexican pride on Mexico’s day so I expect it’ll go to points.

In a Ring Magazine article entitled Canelo-Chavez, Jr.: The Fight for Mexico, penned by a Mr. Norm Frauenheim, and available to fully peruse HERE -- Frauenheim makes a point I'll pull out and place after this colon: "Yet despite all that has been said and seen, the fight itself remains as hard to judge as just about everything that has preceded it. Maybe that’s appropriate. Maybe not. Maybe it’s not much of a contest at all. Maybe it’s more of an event than a real fight. Maybe, maybe, maybe."

"Oh, definitely so." Me.

I believe they’ll stand and trade and Chavez might be on top but coming down from light heavy to 164.5 pounds is gonna hurt him. Alvarez will be a lot fresher up at 164.5 and hell in close and not allowing Chavez space to breath. Also, Canelo doesn’t get hit as much, deflecting mucho with his gloves, whereas Chavez gets caught and clocked cleanly. I think ‘Canelo’ will dominate the second half after a surprisingly slow first two stanzas followed by a furious flurry of a slight handful of stanzas. Slowly, the pendulum will swing till the championship rounds wherein Chavez proves his new-found metal in remaining footed.

There ya got it. What happens though to the Sweet Science landscape if somehow Chavez wins? Oy vey iz mir, gentlepersons -- though it won't happen. I'll not meaningfully then prolong this.