Friday, November 27, 2015

Kap's Lock Picks SPECIAL Clark Handicap Clark Handicap Tip Sheet

CHURCHILL DOWNS
Race 11 5:35pm ET gate
Grade 1 Horses 3 & older
9 furlongs Dirt

One of the oldest American races, dating back to 1875. Named after Colonel M. Lewis Clark -- founder of the Louisville Jockey Club which built Churchill Downs.
ENTRIES
1 Keen Ice (KY) C. Lanerie/D. Romans 3/1
A 3YO colt by Curlin who finished an unassuming 4th at 2015 GrI Breeders Cup Classic on his last outing and before that won the 2015 Travers Stakes passing a too pressed by Frosted, American Pharoah. If events line up, he just might pick his bone with Effinex.

2 Looks to Spare (IL) V. Lebron/G. DiPrima 30/1
This 5YO gelding ran 6th 2015 GrII Marathon his last time out at Keeneland; coming off a coming way off 5th place nonthreatening finish at Belmont's GrI Jockey Club Gold Cup. You can expect a mid/late finish here. Won't figger.

3 Mr. Z (KY) R. Santana/D. Lucas 15/1
3YO colt and AP Indy sib ended up 6th at the 2015 GrI Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and prior to that, 4th in the GrII Pennsylvania Derby. Simply out of his league in this field. Next.

4 Frivolous (KY) J. Court/V. Oliver 15/1
A 5YO mare who ran 5th 2015 GrI Breeders Cup Distaff and prior to that, 4th at the 2015 GrI Spinster at Keeneland. Slight chance here with the fellas. Better chance would have been going after a repeat on Thanksgiving Day's Falls City Handicap.

5 Protonico (KY) J. Laparoux/T. Pletcher 8/1
4YO colt finished 5th last out at the 2015 GrII Fayette Stakes, coming off running 8th at the GrI Woodward Stakes. He'll be mentioned for whatever reason, but won't factor in this Grade 1 field. At one point, he had it. At this point, he don't.

6 Hoppertunity (KY) M. Garcia/B. Baffert 7/2
Lightening has as much of a probability chance of striking the same spot twice, as it does once. I give you gentlepersons last year's winner. Once you roll Snake Eyes, you're just as likely to roll Snake Eyes. Odds reset. Although horses are alive and capable of comfort zones. Speaking of comfort zones: this 4YO colt and son of Any Given Saturday, placed in the 2015 GrII Fayette Stakes his last time out. Before that, he placed at GrI Awesome Again. Hasn't placed better than place since 1/15 GrI San Pasqual at Santa Anita. I'd plunk a shekel on show -- and if I win -- get most of that shekel back. Could put the jump in Bridge Jumper if you have 100k or so in yer top drawer.

7 Shotgun Kowboy (OK) M. Berry/C. Trout 20/1
A 3 YO gelding with a lot to prove and a chip on his shoulder. Won his last three times out in lesser fields including latest 2015 Oklahoma Classics Cup (RS), before that GrII Oklahoma Derby, before that an allowance race -- all at Remington Park. Has a shot here, but M/L odds might not be worth the risk. Worthy of mention is that the colt's never finished out of the moolah. Will do OK early, and would be nice to see this affable horse to do OK in the end as well. Could happen.

8 Effinex (NY) M. Smith/J. Jerkens 5/2
Here's a 4YO colt with almost as much to prove as Shotgun Kowboy, but more along the better established lines of securing a 'signature win.' Another AP Indy sib, he finished 2nd at the GrI 2015 Breeders Cup Classic and before that 3rd in the 2015 GfI Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont. His last win came at the GrII Suburban Handicap 7/4/15 at Belmont. I can't say I like him to find that win here, but he could figure -- more at the race's beginning than at its end, as I see him challenging early then falling back.

9 Race Day (KY) J. Valezquez/T. Pletcher 7/2
Won 2015 GrII Fayette Stakes his last trip but before that got 9th at the GrI Forego Handicap at Saratogo. Without getting into the particulars, and to simply make a point as to why I wouldn't recommend looking here, in the 4YO colt's last half dozen trips, he's finished 1-9-6-1-1-3. Without an abundance of neither rhyme nor reason. Although stepping up in class at to his lone GrI go, netted him a 9th place finish.
FORTUNE TELLING
Box 6-7-8
Alsos 1-4
Gentlepersons, don't bet the dough dough.
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